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So Newt's surging and Romney's nervous? He's still in the lead in New Hampshire, and just a few days ago, Jonathan Bernstein wrote:

Forget Newt’s surge. Romney is still the favorite.

Bernstein's comments were partly based on the absence of a grassroots "Stop Romney' campaign. Actually, if there is one in Iowa, it's on the Gingrich side:

"With Gingrich it's a mixed bag," he said. "The leadership wants to endorse a candidate that will win (against President Obama). Overall, the Christian base is on the side of Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum on principals. But their question is what is electable."

Personally, however, he said he was more concerned with values than perceived electability.

But even that's weak tea. Intrade today, just as an example (not a prediction) has Romney at 46 percent, Newt at 34 percent to win the nomination [and as of this afternoon, Mitt is unchanged, Newt's down 4.9 to 29.4...]

So here are five things to keep in mind about the state of the race:

Indecision is high

The Selzer-conducted DMR poll this weekend had one highlight that struck me:

What also stands out in the poll results: More than 70 percent of likely caucusgoers are still up for grabs. Eleven percent aren’t yet ready to name a first choice, and 60 percent say they could be persuaded to support another candidate. That finding was highlighted by half a dozen political insiders or campaign operatives interviewed by the Register on Sunday.

Since Newt's lead is late in coming, his supporters can't possibly be embracing him with the enthusiasm of, say, (former) Cain or Paul supporters. And while there's not much time left for Iowa, there's still time to change minds in a caucus state. That, mind you, doesn't mean the polls are wrong. They are just not the final word.

He Who Must Not Be Named is in second in Iowa

Reading a lot about Ron Paul lately? Me neither. But he is in second in Iowa by a hair, and the story there is whether he wins (great organization, committed supporters) or doesn't win (no one else likes them, and he's no one's second choice—7 percent compared to this):

More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43 percent of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second.

Ron Paul can still hurt Romney by relegating Romney to third.

Tea party finishes last

Whether it's Bachmann, Cain, Perry or Santorum, the tea party wasn't thinking Romney or Gingrich as their first best choice. Gingrich, in particular, represents everything that the tea party professes to hate: a values-challenged D.C. insider that gets rich on the taxpayer's dime, who's also not averse to big government solutions to his idea of the moment. One of those (Romney or Gingrich) looks to be the winner. That means the tea party is taking some big hits.

Retail politics in decline

Want me to name a superb retail politician? Rick Perry. Want me to name someone who has been to all 99 Iowa counties, the traditional way? Rick Santorum. Want to know who is going to win Iowa? Not likely one of them. Even in New Hampshire, it's been more about television and less abut the visits. So why do these states go first, again?

Whoever wins on the GOP side is damaged

So Romney and Gingrich want to beat out the other? And Romney, who trails in the polls, can do this by being nice to the Newtster? Let's see how that works out for him. Mitt's timing has never been very good. (All in, in Iowa, three months after he should have been, and just in time to hurt him—and when did he see McCain coming?)

The likely scenario is whoever wins, it's because of some attacking they didn't want to do. And whatever the other guy says, we are going to hear it again in the general. That's a given.

Posted: 2011-12-05 09:06:55Author:

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